Published: October 2025
Authors: Tihomira Kostova, Martin Vladimirov, Center for the Study of Democracy
Authors: Tihomira Kostova, Martin Vladimirov, Center for the Study of Democracy
This working paper examines illicit financial flows (IFFs) in the Western Balkans and Black Sea regions, shedding light on their scale, drivers, and consequences. Covering ten countries – Albania, Montenegro, Serbia, North Mace-donia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine, and Armenia – the analysis combines trade data with econometric methods to estimate the magnitude, correlations, and impacts of IFFs. The paper explores in particular the dynamics of IFFs in trade with a focus on sanction evasion, strategic corruption, conflict financing, economic stability and implications for development assistance to the Global South.
