Published: March 2026
Authors: Dafy Faramalala Andriamparany, Elizabeth Dávid-Barrett, Ketakandriana Rafitoson and Tom Shipley
In late 2025, mass protests over failing public services in Madagascar rapidly escalated into wider demands for accountability and an end to entrenched corruption. Demonstrators challenged a longstanding system of state capture in which elite networks have dominated economic opportunities, constrained political competition and shaped state institutions to serve their own interests. The unrest culminated in the fall of President Andry Rajoelina and the emergence of a transitional military government led by Colonel Michael Randrianirina, which has pledged a two-year transition and a national dialogue in 2026.
This moment of upheaval offers a rare opening for governance reform, but it also carries the risk that existing patterns of capture could be reproduced or deepened. Madagascar’s experience echoes a wave of ‘GenZ protests’ in countries such as Bangladesh, Nepal and Serbia, where young people have linked economic hardship to systemic capture and demanded structural change.
A central challenge in all these contexts is how to dismantle entrenched captor networks and build more inclusive, accountable systems once a regime falls. Translating the momentum of street protests into durable institutional reform is neither automatic nor straightforward.
This brief explores these questions in the Malagasy context, drawing on in-depth political economy analysis and insights from GI ACE’s international research on building resilience to capture. It explains how state capture operates in Madagascar, highlights lessons from other transitions, and outlines the dynamics shaping the current period. It also sets out principles and questions to guide stakeholders – including civil society, the transitional authorities, international financial institutions and development partners – as they prepare for the national dialogue and consider pathways to countering capture.
