Shadow Economies: Illicit Financial Flows and Sanctions Evasion in the Balkans and Black Sea

This webinar will launch the new research paper Shadow Economies: The Rise of Illicit Networks and Alternative Markets in Sanctions Circumvention. The study examines how illicit financial flows linked to sanctions evasion have surged across the Western Balkans and Black Sea region, doubling to more than $31 billion in 2023.

It shows that European companies continue to sell sanctioned dual-use goods to Russia, often by falsifying documentation, using shell companies or rebranded firms, and relying on entrenched state-capture networks to sustain Russia’s access to dual-use technologies and critical supplies. The discussion will focus on the paper’s findings, including the broader economic and governance implications for countries in Europe’s neighbourhood, as well as the global risks of sanctions evasion as similar patterns begin to appear in emerging markets. The session will also explore policy responses for the EU, UK, and G7, ranging from stronger export controls to early warning systems and long-term efforts to counter state capture.

SPEAKERS

Tihomira Kostova, Senior Analyst, Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD)

Elizabeth David-Barrett, Programme Director at GI ACE and Director at CSC, University of Sussex (Chair).

Register here: https://bit.ly/CSDWPLaunch